Profit Mongers @ 1:00 AM, Thursday September 09 2010
Hey folks,
I think I went a bit overboard with my signal last week at about 1300 words, lol... 2 1/2 pages when I pasted into Microsoft Word. Tonight's signal will be very concise.
I still like both GBP/USD and EUR/USD short. My plan yesterday was to sell both on rallies and I took some educated guesses at potential tops, and while my guesses were a bit off (7 pips too high on EUR/USD, and GBP/USD level was too low and stopped me out before turning lower), the gist of wanting to be short for a more medium term move remains. I expect EUR/USD to break lower below 1.2625 and extend even lower possibly by another 100 pips.
GBP/USD I expect to exhibit some weakness, but with the current sentiment balanced more negatively against the EUR/USD, and EUR/GBP in position for a potential extention lower, I think GBP/USD weakness may be limited to 1.5415-25 for the time being.
Stocks are still a bit unclear with mixed pressures. I'd stick with any current trades as planned, and I'll have more on stocks as the picture clears up from my perspective.
In news Wednesday, we saw the BOC raise interest rates as expected with somewhat neutral commentary, but the speculative CAD short covering pushed USD/CAD much further down than I expected without help from the commentary churning down 140 pips over 4 hours (60 pips in the first minute). A very high CAD Ivey also came in an hour after the interest rate release to help extend the USD/CAD push lower. AU Employment came out only slightly better than expected but still produced a 50 pip rally over 6 minutes. In news Thursday:
0700 UK Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.50% expected) - There is very little chance of any new developments here, but just in case:
If they hike rates, GBP/USD should rally 100-200 pips.
If they introduce additional QE measures of some sort, GBP/USD should lose 50-100+ pips depending on the extent of the QE.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at
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Sir Pipsalot
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