Profit Mongers @ 1:15 AM, Monday September 06 2010
Hey folks,
It looks like to me there's potential in both directions for the Euro Monday, whereas the AUD/USD and GBP/USD are tilted a bit more bearishly. Honestly though, I like all 3 short with a modest 30-60 pip SL to start the week (EU - 1.2903, AU - 0.9171, and GU - 1.5482 as I type) not because they have a huge chance of selling off, but because IF they turn lower soon, it should mean 100's of pips lower. So it's not a high probability trade, but more of a risk reward trade that you want to look for 2-4 times your SL to take profits.
USD/JPY failed to hold onto a sharp but brief rally after NFP and has been pushed back down into consolidation. If you were short as I was and didn't get stopped out on that post-news run Friday, I'd stay short, but if you did get stopped out (I did), I don't like it enough for a new entry.
Stocks managed a nice rally fueled by the upbeat employment numbers out of the US and have held onto gains through the weekend so far. With a market holiday Monday, the futures are likely to slowly rally a bit higher to stop some people out, then turn lower into Tuesday. Because of this, I like the idea of a shorter term short anywhere above 1105 (now 1105.75) with a 10-20 point SL and 10-20 point TP. Medium to long term I'm short as well, but I'm a bit nervous about it, and the next 3-10 days should do a lot to either confirm the trade or signal it's time to get out and look in the other direction.
In news Friday, we saw UK Services PMI come in quite low and push GBP/USD lower 30 pips right away and about 50 pips lower in total over 15-30 minutes which was a bit more than I thought it could nab (I took profits a bit early). We also got US Nonfarm Payrolls come out a bit high, but a positive revision helped push stock futures higher for a good trade, and USD/JPY higher by 50+ pips in short order. However, without the benefit of a strong deviation, and with no help from the Unemployment Rate (as expected), the USD/JPY sold off hard from resistance and gave back all of it's gains within 45 minutes. There's no news Monday worth watching, but Australia has their Interest Rate Statement due just after midnight EST on Tuesday, so I'll have tomorrow's signal out early to cover that.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
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