Profit Mongers @ 12:42 AM, Friday August 20 2010
Hey folks,
EUR/USD managed to put in another bump up to 1.2900 for another resell and back down to 1.2800 today. There's been some nice range trading there. A break north of 1.2925 will probably mean another 100-180 pips higher from there, but as long as it holds, the medium term odds are still pointed lower. I remain overall short for the long term looking to TP in the 1.2420-1.2610 range.
USD/JPY suffered through some bad US news today which got a lot more attention than it usually does, which caused a temporary dip. Thankfully the good ol' 85.00 support came into play and the long is still in play. If we get a more confirmed break lower through 84.80, the long I called yesterday is busted, but a solid break higher through 86.40 should see at least the 89.00's
Stocks turned lower perfectly from my 1095-1105 sell region touching as low as 1068 on futures today. A break below 1066 will confirm we are in the next major selling phase that should see at least a test of 1000 and likely much lower before a significant bounce kicks in. At this point, I'd lower my resell area (if you're looking to get in short more... I'm short all I need to be atm) to around 1085.
In news Thursday, we saw UK Retail Sales come out decently high across the board, but we had a ridiculously overpowered rally that gave very little retracement opportunities. If you just got long GBP/USD at any point, it was easy money, but the initial move was so strong it was hard to justify doing so safely. In the end, the rally was 150 pips over 90 minutes before any type of downwards action. In the US, Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Index came out much worse than expected, and although they're not consistently tradable reports, both pushed USD/JPY lower by 30 pips over 5-15 mintues and stocks down by 1% each over 5-10 minutes. In news Friday:
0700 CAD Core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) - This report should have enough juice on a an otherwise slow news day to push USD/CAD 40 pips or so initially, and or perhaps even more over the next 30-60 minutes after some retracement or consolidation. I would avoid trading it or at least exit early though if there's a strong conflict with the headline CPI (0.6% expected m/m).
If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/CAD should drop 40 pips quickly and potentially down extend further.
If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40 pips quickly, and potentially down extend further.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
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