Profit Mongers @ 5:03 AM, Friday August 13 2010
Hey folks,
As promised, today's update comes ahead of the NY session instead of the typical release ahead of the European session.
In yesterday's signal, I talked extensively about trends with the Euro and stocks. I don't have a whole lot more to add to that today. I expect the EUR/USD to work lower towards the 1.2420 - 1.2610 range (now 1.2837within the next few days, so any decent 100+ pip bounces are likely good selling opportunities.
In stocks, we've conosolidated a bit after Wednesday's huge drop. If we can continue to retrace a bit more higher, I'd be up for selling a bit more around 1100 with a 30 point SL/TP.
In news Friday, after researching a bit, it looked like German GDP really wasn't worth trading, and that did turn out to be the case earlier this morning. We have a few reports clustered into the NY session to discuss though:
0830 US Core Retail Sales (ex autos) and Core CPI (ex food/energy) (0.3% RS, and 0.1% CPI expected) - We usually don't get these two released at the same time, and while that will likely complicate the situation, it could also make a move much more powerful if the numbers agree with each other. Even if these two numbers agree though, look out for conflicts with Headline versions of both just in case.
--If US Retail Sales Ex Autos comes out at 1.0% or higher or CPI Ex Food & Energy comes out at 0.3% or higher and neither number comes in below expectations -- USD/JPY should rally 40-50 pips over 5-15 minutes.
--If US Retail Sales Ex Autos comes out at -0.4% or lower, or CPI Ex Food & Energy comes out at -0.1% or lower and neither number comes in above expectations -- USD/JPY should sell off 40-50 pips over 5-15 minutes.
0955 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (69.0 expected) - This news is usually good for a 30 pip or sometimes even 40 pip move that usually doesn't shoot all the way there in the first minute. This can give you a chance to get in within 10 pips of prerelease in that first minute or so and hold on for a 20+ pip gain over the next 5-15 minutes.
If it comes out at 75 or higher (+6 deviation), USD/JPY should rally 30 pips
If it comes out at 63 or lower (-6 deviation), USD/JPY should drop 30 pips
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
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Sir Pipsalot
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