Profit Mongers @ 9:52 PM, Wednesday August 04 2010
Hey folks,
Just a short update tonight...
EUR/USD did indeed push lower through 1.3200 as I forecasted yesterday, and could be set up for further losses (now at 1.3152).
Stocks sold off a bit further overnight, but managed a decent rally today back up into my 1120-1130 sell range. The forecast has been we should top out sometime this week (Friday ideally) around 1130, and that scenario is playing out fine thusfar.
For more detailed insight into EUR/USD and Stocks, please read or reread my signals from Tuesday and Wednesday:
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/Main/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/134265/Profit-Mongers-Tuesday-Trading-Signal-08-03-2010.aspx
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/Main/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/134563/Profit-Mongers-Wednesday-Trading-Signal-08-04-2010.aspx
In news Wednesday, we saw UK Services PMI come in quite low and sold off about 55 pips fairly steadily over 10-12 minutes for a decent trade opportunity as highlighted yesterday. NZ Employment Change also came in very disappointing, with a 45 pip initial drop, followed eventually by an extra 10-15 pips lower after awhile. In news Thursday:
0700 BoE Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.50% expected) - There is little chance of a surprise move here, but any further drama regarding additional hawkish dissent in the BoE (other than Sentance), or a noticeable shift in rate outlook could send the GBP/USD moving sharply one way or the other. They're expected to essentially keep their neutral tone without any surprises though and may not even release a statement.
--If they hike at all (unlikely), GBP/USD should rally 100+ pips.
--If additional members call for hiking rates (that info may not be released), or there's a noticably more hawkish tone, GBP/USD should rally 40-50 pips.
--If there's a dovish surprise (such as Sentance not calling for a hike, or talk of APF reinstatement), GBP/USD should drop 40-50 pips.
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision (no change at 1.00% expected) - There is also very little chance of a change here... I'd keep a loose eye on it, but the chances of something happening here are so low it's worth skipping. There's always the chance that something juicy comes out of Trichet's press conference at 0830, but that could come randomly at any point between 0830-1030 EST.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
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Sir Pipsalot
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