Ralph Shell @ 2:47 PM, Friday May 21 2010
On a day when the equities market is tanking, leave it to CNBC to haul out the economic trash talkers like Nouriel Roubini. Stocks are due for another 20% decline, and cash is the safest place he claims. If the mattress is getting lumpy, put some cash in the survival room along with your gold coins, dry food and the organic seeds that are guaranteed to grow after global crises. Dr. Roubini, a perpetual bear, has been touting the return of hyper inflation, and a spike in interest rates as our government borrows another couple trillion, is seemingly unaware that the 10 year rate on US Treasuries is down to 3.25%.
After the weakness in Asian and European equities last night, the US market shrugged off the lower opening and stages a rally. The dysfunctional euro, and Angela Merkel's reluctance to give bigger hand outs to the needy Club Med cousins is cited as the prime cause.
There are pending meetings scheduled to restore confidence in the financial system. Our own Timothy Geithner is scheduled to meet with the Brits and the Germans next week. Further, there whispers about secret meeting to coordinate currency intervention on behalf of the USD, the yen and the euro. Meanwhile it looks like the euro is going to close higher for the week. Milton Friedman always claimed that, left alone, markets would work things out.
In the speculative scramble to dump risky assets, heading the advise of the gloom and doomers, we wonder if the loonie has not been falsely characterized. Yes, the sell off in the crude price, as the commodity bulls bailed, is bearish on the C$, but $70 per barrel is not a bad price, $10 above last years $60 per barrel price. Recent Canadian economic numbers have been positive. Yesterday the m/m Canadian leading index was up 0.9 better than the expected 0.7%. Today core retail sales were up 1.7% better than the expected 0.5%. The core CPI was up 0.3 slightly better than the expected 0.2%.
Until the recent global economic turbulence, traders felt the Bank of Canada would be the first of the G7 to raise the central bank rate. The meeting date for the bank is June 1st, a mere fortnight from today. Next week's market gyrations may have special significance for the C$. As Jack Spitz said today in the Financial Post:
"And setting aside the other factors that are influencing the markets,
being risk on, risk off, equities, uncertainties with respect to Europe,
China, global growth concerns, they remain very, very much influential
in what will likely be a decision that will come right down to June 1
for the Bank of Canada."
Recent market action has probably purged this market of weak speculative longs, as we have sold off from near parity twice to 1.0750. We do not think the C$ is a risky asset especially at the 1.06 level, and it stands to benefit with the prospect of a rate increase should global conditions calm.
Author: Ralph Shell - ForexRazor Analyst - Graduated from a small Ohio liberal arts college. Graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. Ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets. Former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.