Profit Mongers @ 12:46 AM, Tuesday April 27 2010
Hey folks,
Monday did see some recovery in EUR/USD, but we failed to rally past the 1.3425 level so far. It looks like it's going to give way though, so it's not such a bad idea to start considering some longs. The odds have tilted towards this being a further bounce retracement as a wave C higher that should at least make it to the 1.3692 highs, and most probably the 1.3800-1.3900 area I had been sighting last week. Prudent longs here at market (1.3380's), on a slight further dip (1.3340-55 trendline forming on hourly chart), or on more concrete confirmation with a break through 1.3425 all make sense given there's 300-400 pips of profit potential with maybe 50-100 pips risk and decent odds.
It's still not very certain we'll see this EUR/USD bounce until we can squeak out above 1.3425 and hold there though. If this does end up working and you happen to miss out on it, don't fret... it will set up for an excellent sell likely in the 1.3800-1.3900 range that should have a lot of downside potential.
On stocks, there was an early rally RIGHT to 1220 barely hitting my 17 point TP on my futures trade. For now, there's very likely going to be a bit of a pullback near 1195-1200 and then a continuation higher to modest new highs. I plan to reenter long stocks with a buy limit at 1200.25, with an SL at 1189.75 (10.50 points) and TP at 1219.50 (19.25 points) which is almost 2-1 reward to risk.
There was no tradable news on Monday. In news Tuesday:
1000 US Consumer Confidence (about 53.5 expected) - This news can definitely move the market when there's a big surprise, but it's often quite muted when somewhat close to expectations. Look for 5 or more on the deviation to make a solid impact on USD/JPY.
If it comes out at 59 or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes otu at 48 or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips.
2130 AU CPI Trimmed Mean q/q (0.6% expected) - This report hasn't surprised the markets in awhile, so a decent deviation here without conflict should get things moving well on the AUD.
If it comes out at 0.8% or higher (and other CPI numbers are as expected or higher), AUD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes otu at 0.4% or lower (and other CPI numbers are as expected or lower), AUD/USD should fall 40 pips.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
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Sir Pipsalot
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